- Shares of SpaceX could fall after the company’s forecast for capex, with the key factor being that AI-capex may be higher than investors expect.
- Forbes, citing CNBC, reports that the company’s capex guidance for the next quarter was set at $18.4 billion, with $15.8 billion allocated to AI infrastructure.
- According to the company’s materials, the forecasted increase in capex is driven by higher demand for chips, which in turn is linked to the expected growth in sales of the company’s products, including the lockup period.
SpaceX shares, which have been falling since the opening of trading, may still manage to end the day in positive territory, supported by a media report. According to one of the company’s materials, starting from the third quarter, the company plans to keep its capex growth at no more than 11%.
Independent reports that, according to the company, the reason for the increase in capex is the expected growth in demand for chips, driven by an expansion of the AI market. In winter, SpaceX expects to spend about $5.1 billion more than previously planned.
Forbes, citing CNBC, also notes that the company’s guidance for AI capex is higher. Independent says that, in pre-market trading, the stock was up 11%, but by the close of trading on 16 April, it was down 49%.
According to Forbes, the company’s capex guidance ranges from $2.8 billion to $18.4 billion, and $15.8 billion of that is for AI infrastructure. Independent adds that SpaceX does not plan to provide a binding forecast of financial results.
Independent also quotes Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, who says that the increase in capex could be a sign of higher investment risks. Independent adds that, according to the analyst, the expected increase in capex is linked to the company’s plans for the next launch window.
Independent notes that the main risk for the company is the possibility of delays in the production of chips, which could affect the timing of the lockup. In winter, the company may be able to deliver more than 900 million units.
Material from Al-Awsat (in English) says that the company’s forecast for SpaceX’s lockup is based on a plan to increase production capacity. It also reports that the company expects the lockup to rise by 15%.
Al-Awsat also notes that the company expects the short interest to rise by $1.55 billion, reaching $7 billion. It adds that short interest could increase significantly, as the company’s free float of 63% is expected to be locked up.
Independent concludes that, for investors, the most important thing is the company’s ability to meet its production targets. Independent notes that the expected increase in capex is based on the company’s plan to expand the Falcon 9 production line, which, according to the company, will be completed by 2025.